- Malonda aku China ndi Latin America ndi Caribbean adakula 26 pakati pa 2000 ndi 2020. Malonda a LAC-China akuyembekezeka kuwirikiza kawiri ndi 2035, kupitirira $ 700 biliyoni.
- US ndi misika ina yachikhalidwe imasiya kutenga nawo gawo pazogulitsa zonse za LAC pazaka 15 zikubwerazi.Zitha kukhala zovuta kwambiri kuti LAC ipititse patsogolo maunyolo ake ndikupindula ndi msika wachigawo.
- Kukonzekera zochitika ndi ndondomeko zatsopano zingathandize okhudzidwa kukonzekera kusintha kwa zinthu.
Kukula kwa China ngati gwero lalikulu lazamalonda kwakhudza kwambiri zamalonda padziko lonse lapansi pazaka 20 zapitazi, ndi zigawo zazikulu zachuma ku Latin America ndi Caribbean (LAC) pakati pa omwe apindula kwambiri.Pakati pa 2000 ndi 2020, malonda aku China-LAC adakula 26 kuchokera pa $ 12 biliyoni mpaka $ 315 biliyoni.
M'zaka za m'ma 2000, zofuna za ku China zidayendetsa zinthu zambiri ku Latin America, zomwe zimathandiza kuchepetsa mavuto a zachuma padziko lonse a 2008.Zaka khumi pambuyo pake, malonda ndi China adakhalabe olimba ngakhale mliriwu udalipo, ndikupereka gwero lofunikira lakukula kwakunja kwa LAC yomwe yakhudzidwa ndi mliri, yomwe imawerengera 30% yaimfa zapadziko lonse lapansi za COVID ndipo zidatsika ndi 7.4% GDP mu 2020. M'mbiri yakale ubale wamalonda wamphamvu ndi United States ndi Europe, kukwera kwachuma kwa China kumakhala ndi zotsatirapo zake pakuchita bwino komanso kulowerera ndale ku LAC ndi kupitirira apo.
Njira yochititsa chidwiyi yamalonda aku China-LAC pazaka 20 zapitazi ikubweretsanso mafunso ofunikira kwazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi: Kodi tingayembekezere chiyani paubwenzi wamalondawu?Kodi ndi zochitika ziti zomwe zikubwera zomwe zingakhudze kuyenda kwa malondawa ndipo zingachitike bwanji m'madera ndi padziko lonse lapansi?Kumanga pamwamba pathulipoti laposachedwa la zochitika zamalonda, nazi zidziwitso zitatu zofunika kwa omwe akukhudzidwa ndi LAC.Zomwe zapezazi ndizofunikanso kwa ma China ndi mabungwe ena akuluakulu a LAC, kuphatikiza United States.
Kodi tikuyembekezera kuwona chiyani?
Pamayendedwe aposachedwa, malonda a LAC-China akuyembekezeka kupitilira $ 700 biliyoni pofika 2035, kuwirikiza kawiri kuposa mu 2020. China idzayandikira-ndipo ikhoza kupitirira-US monga wogulitsa wamkulu wa LAC.Mu 2000, kutenga nawo gawo kwa China kudakhala kochepera 2% ya malonda onse a LAC.Mu 2035, ikhoza kufika 25%.
Manambala ophatikizana, komabe, amabisa kusiyana kwakukulu m'magawo osiyanasiyana.Ku Mexico, komwe kumadalira pazamalonda ndi US, nkhani yathu yoyambira ikuyerekeza kuti kutenga nawo gawo kwa China kungafikire pafupifupi 15% yamalonda aku Mexico.Kumbali ina, Brazil, Chile, ndi Peru atha kukhala ndi zopitilira 40% zotumizira kunja kupita ku China.
Ponseponse, ubale wabwino ndi mabizinesi awiri akulu akulu ungakhale wokomera LAC.Ngakhale kuti United States ingaone kuchepa kwakuchita nawo malonda a LAC ku China, maubwenzi a hemispheric-makamaka omwe akuphatikizapo kuphatikizika kwakuya kwazitsulo-ndizofunika kwambiri pakupanga zogulitsa kunja, ndalama ndi kukula kwamtengo wapatali kwa dera.
Kodi China ingapindule bwanji ndi malonda a LAC?
Ngakhale malonda akuyenera kukula mbali zonse ziwiri, mphamvuyi idzabwera kuchokera ku LAC kuchokera ku China- m'malo motumiza LAC kupita ku China.
Kumbali ya LAC yotumiza kunja, tikuwoneratu dziko la China kukhala lopikisana kwambiri pazogulitsa kunja, chifukwa chotengera umisiri wa Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) kuphatikiza 5G ndi luntha lochita kupanga.Ponseponse, zopindulitsa kuchokera kuzinthu zatsopano ndi zina zitha kupitilira zotsatira za kuchepa kwa ogwira ntchito, ndikupititsa patsogolo kupikisana kwa malonda aku China.
Kumbali yotumiza kunja kwa LAC, kusintha kofunikira kungathe kuchitika.Zogulitsa zaulimi za LAC ku China ndizozokayikitsa kupitirizapa liwiro la bonanza la masiku ano.Kunena zowona, derali lidzakhalabe lopikisana paulimi.Koma misika ina kupatula China, monga Africa, imathandizira kuti pakhale phindu lochulukirapo.Izi zikuwonetsa kufunikira kwa maiko a LAC kuti afufuze misika yatsopano yomwe akupita, komanso kusinthiratu katundu wawo ku China komwe.
Pakalipano, kukula kwa katundu wa kunja kukuyenera kupitirira kukula kwa katundu wa kunja, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti malonda a LAC awonongeke kwambiri ku China, ngakhale pali kusiyana kwakukulu kwa zigawo.Ngakhale mayiko ochepa kwambiri a LAC akuyembekezeka kusunga zotsalira zawo ndi China, chithunzi chokulirapo chikuwonetsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwamalonda mderali.Kuonjezera apo, ndondomeko zowonjezera, zosagwirizana ndi malonda zidzakhala zofunikira kuti mudziwe kukula ndi zotsatira zachiwiri za zoperewera zamalondazi m'dziko lililonse, kuchokera kumisika yazantchito kupita ku ndondomeko zakunja.
Zomwe mungayembekezere pamalonda a intra-LAC mu 2035?
Pamene mliriwu udasokoneza maunyolo apadziko lonse lapansi, mafoni ochokera ku LAC oti abwerenso kapena kuyandikira pafupi komanso kuphatikizana kwakukulu kwachigawo awonekeranso.Komabe, potengera kupitiliza kwa zomwe zilipo, tsogolo silikuwoneka ngati labwino pamalonda a intra-LAC.Ngakhale m'madera ena a dziko lapansi, makamaka ku Asia, malonda apakati pazigawo zakula mofulumira kuposa malonda apadziko lonse m'zaka zaposachedwa, mphamvu zomwezi sizinawonekere ku LAC.
Popanda kulimbikitsana kwatsopano kwa kuphatikiza kwa zigawo, kuchepetsa kwakukulu kwa ndalama zamalonda za intra-LAC kapena zopindulitsa zazikulu, LAC ikhoza kukhalabe yosatha kupititsa patsogolo maunyolo amtengo wapatali ndikupindula ndi msika wachigawo.M'malo mwake, zoyerekeza zathu zikuwonetsa kuti pazaka 15 zikubwerazi, malonda a intra-LAC atha kukhala osakwana 15% yamalonda onse amderali, kutsika mpaka 20% chisanafike chaka cha 2010.
Kuyang'ana m'mbuyo: Zoyenera kuchita lero?
Pazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi, China ikhala yofunikira kwambiri pazachuma za LAC.Malonda a LAC akuyamba kutembenukira ku China - kukhudza mabizinesi ena komanso malonda apakati pachigawocho.Tikupangira:
Scenario Planning
Kupanga zochitika sikungonena zamtsogolo, koma kumathandiza okhudzidwa kukonzekera zotheka zosiyanasiyana.Kukonzekera kusintha kwa zinthu ndikofunikira makamaka pakakhala chipwirikiti m'tsogolo: Mwachitsanzo, mayiko a LAC ndi makampani omwe angakhudzidwe ndi kusintha komwe kungachitike pakupanga katundu wa LAC kupita ku China.Vuto lopangitsa kuti magawo otumiza kunja akhale opikisana pamsika waku China adangowonekera kwambiri ku LAC.N'chimodzimodzinso ndi kufunikira kopanga misika yatsopano, yosinthira kumayiko ena akunja a LAC, monga ulimi komanso, zinthu zambiri.
Kuchita Zochita ndi Kupikisana
Ogwira nawo ntchito ku LAC - komanso opanga mfundo ndi mabizinesi makamaka - ayenera kuyang'ana momveka bwino za zotsatira za malonda a zokolola zochepa zomwe zimakhudza gawo lazopangapanga.Popanda kuthana ndi zovuta zomwe zikulepheretsa mpikisano wamafakitale mderali, LAC imatumiza ku US, kudera lomwelo komanso misika ina yachikhalidwe ipitilirabe kuvutika.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, okhudzidwa ku US angachite bwino kuchitapo kanthu kuti alimbikitsenso malonda a hemispherical, ngati kusunga US kutenga nawo mbali mu malonda a LAC kumaonedwa kuti ndi cholinga choyenera kutsata.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jul-10-2021